Every 38 Years?

I've encountered a statistic here and there recently, variously attributed to Mike Slaughter, Barna,  some church consultant named somebody-Anderson, and several others (it's in the UM Reporter and everything): The average United Methodist invites someone to church every 38 years.  I would love for someone to fact check that figure for me.  It sonds like preacher numbers to me, and preachers would be thrown in the slammer if they tried to do accounting the way they use church numbers.  I'd love to know where to find a verifiable study that created this startling figure.

Even if it's based on goofy quantitative research of some sort or another, it does kinda feel like there must be some there there.  It's very easy to find studies that suggest that most people who come to church come because a person other than a pastor invites them (most numbers for those studies are above 80%).

It makes me wonder.  See, I sold knives through in-home demonstrations when I was in college.  I certainly didn't think that everyone would buy.  I knew, even when I was 19-years-old, that I would have to persevere through a certain number of rejections before someone would be interested in what I was selling.

I first came to the United Methodist Church to take a job, but I stayed and became a pastor because I believe the UMC is the best one and the denomination that combines the best aspects of the other traditions.  Ever since, I've heard about decline and what's causing it.  Most of these complaints are about liberalism and institutional inefficiency.

Personally, I love a denomination that combines evangelical fervor with a social conscience.  I love a denomination that wrestles with tough questions and is comfortable with grey areas.  I love a denomination with organization and structure and accountability, one that provides a means for congregations to work together rather than build their own kingdoms and compete with each other.  I love a denomination that values education but avoids bookishness or doctrinalism.  I really love a tradition that has helping people and living the faith by serving others in its DNA.

My guess is that there are lots of people who would feel the same way in the greater culture.  Not everybody.  But a lot more would go for the UMC than the stripe of Christianity that more closely fits the cultural stereotype.

What is what we're offering isn't so bad?  What if our biggest problem is that, for whatever reason, we just don't invite folks to come to church enough?